Friday, December 6, 2013

Survivor 27: Gloating and GOATing -- Episode 12 Recap/Analysis

Words can't do justice to that episode, but we can certainly try. How did Tyson go from cruise control to fading an elimination that would be both random and anything but? How did Hayden go from marked man to drawing rocks for a million dollars? And just what is Ciera doing? We puzzle over this and more in this week's podcast, available below, here, or on iTunes here.


  1. I haven't listed to the entire podcast yet, but I'm not sure if it's a cake-walk to the million dollars for Hayden if Tyson draws the white rock. The big unknown is if Tyson is able to give his idol to Gervase on Redemption Island. If so, then Gervase/Monica just have to win immunity and Hayden is gone. Even if they don't win immunity, it's a 50/50 chance that Hayden/Tina/Ciera get idoled out.

    As much as we like to de-emphasize winning challenges and finding immunity idols, they are still important elements of Survivor, particularly towards the end of the game. Hayden has not shown to be good at either one so far.

  2. When looking at Hayden's game, I think he's obviously played very well overall. Basically I think it boils down to how much he should be bumped up for his gameplay in the last round and how much he should be bumped down for booting Laura at F8 and subsequently losing Ciera at F7.

    I understand it was in Ciera's best interest to vote out Tyson at F7 but I think a great player would have been able to successfully convince Ciera to vote out Tyson or would have read the situation better and seen that Ciera values loyalty quite a bit.

  3. I can see where you guys are coming from with Tyson and I agree that he's made some boot decisions that have not been optimal for his game, but I think he had his bases so covered with people in the game that it saved him. Colin, I strongly disagree with your contention that Ciera not voting for Tyson at final 7 was because she was "sketched out" about her Mom being voted out which I don't even know what that means. Most of the credit for Ciera not going with Hayden and Caleb goes to Tyson as you saw at this tribal when Hayden said "Tyson pointed fingers and said it's Aras, it's Vytas, it's Laura Morett" Ciera pipped in saying "Hayden, you and Caleb voted out my Mom" she truly believed the lie that Tyson told her during the episode where her Mom got booted. She didn't side with Hayden and Caleb because Tyson lied to her and because he formed a better bond with her where she trusted him more & he made her believe she could beat him which she talks about in a secret scene. I will give credence to a lot of your arguments (even though I think the Caleb boot is understandable to me because you guys know a different Hayden and not everyone is as familiar with his game in BB or BB as a show as fans like us do), but I don't think you can discredit Tyson for keeping Ciera by his side, it wasn't luck.

  4. My issue with Tyson's gameplay isn't because he mismanged Ciera, he mismanaged Gervase, who went batshit crazy and ruined all of Tyson's good work. His ice cream party choices were one thing, his tribal antics were another.

    And then Hayden swooped in and got her vote. That was such a huge thing and we'll be talking about that move ten seasons in the future. And if we're breaking it down, it's so simple...Hayden was just being honest.

    Tyson on his third game, Hayden just being awesome -- they both get it -- and it was a glorious thing watching them try to pull Ciera to their side.

    And in related news, pulling rocks was the right move for each person who pulled them. Especially when Redemption Island is a backup plan.

    Also, Hayden is sooooo going to win "fan favorite" -- if only because a Reilly is going to tweet about it in the near future.

  5. also, I find that scene where Hayden said "You know I love you, but I'm trying to convince them to blindside you" so lovely. And Tyson's response was "good."

    That was kinda dumb, but it was also obvious. And it was amusing and I'm glad it made it on the TV edit.

    It's clear it's Hayden v. Tyson..everyone else is just there, a vote and F3 fodder. Or a jury member. They won't be in the F3 together...because logic.

    All things considered, the smile/laugh Hayden and Tyson exchanged post rocks was probably the best. It breathed a sigh of relief for both of them just watching it play out...I can't even begin to imagine how they felt in real time and actually being in the game.

    Finally, I have very few game moves and full games I'd tell people to study if they were to play Survivor or Big Brother, but Hayden's BB12 game and that tribal -- there is absolute value in studying those. His strategy and approach to any strategy based game will get anyone far. If he can do it has a visually strong male, then anyone can.

  6. I think Tyson should have switched not at the revote but when they went to discuss it. Say something like "Ciera you aren't number four your number three and I will prove it now by agreeing to vote of Monica"

    I think the risk of Ciera saying with Hayden after that is less than the risk of drawing a rock. IF she does stick with Hayden, Tyson's got the idol and can threaten to play in next tribal council (Like Malcolm in Philippines) and actually play in the 2nd final five. Getting in the final 4. I give him like 40% on that immunity and if he gets Hayden out then then I think he gets the win.

    So the rock draw is 33% a instant loss (I think winning RI will still result in a loss). Where as he got a pretty good chance of winning Ciera back over if he switches (call it 60%) and a 40% chance of winning if she doesn't.


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.